Churn-risk scoring

Each subscriber gets a churn-risk band of low, medium or high, with the factors behind it. Subscribers without enough history stay neutral instead of getting a guess.

Improves with dataShown for the least mature part of this page.

At-risk subscribersSample store

  • Maya R.Open failed paymentHigh
  • Jon T.Recent skipsMedium
  • Ana P.Steady deliveriesLow

Churn-risk scoring

What it does

  • Each subscriber gets a churn-risk band of low, medium or high, with the factors behind it. Subscribers without enough history stay neutral instead of getting a guess.

  • The at-risk worklist shows subscribers by risk band, so you can see who is likely to leave.

Step by step

How it works

  1. Signals are read

    The risk score weighs failed-payment history and open dunning, recent skips and pauses, how long the subscriber has been active, earlier cancellation attempts and portal activity.

  2. A band is assigned

    The weighted signals add up to a band of low, medium or high, and the strongest contributing factor is listed first.

  3. The worklist is built

    The worklist lists high-risk subscribers with a link to each one and the monthly recurring revenue at risk, and shows an honest empty state when nobody is high risk.

What it does not do yet

Limits are listed plainly so you can judge fit before you start.

  • The weights behind the score are fixed defaults. The score does not yet learn from your store's outcomes.

  • Retry timing and churn scoring follow documented rules you can inspect, not a language model.

Try it with your own subscribers.

Request early access and tell us about your store. Arc is not listed in the Shopify App Store yet.

Request early access